EPL Betting Analysis (April 5–7, 2025)

– Match Previews & Betting Analysis

High Over-2.5 Goals Likelihood & Value Bets

Several fixtures this weekend are poised for high goal totals based on team scoring trends. Below we identify matches likely to exceed 2.5 goals, supported by stats and current Pinnacle odds, highlighting where Over 2.5 may offer positive expected value (+EV):

• Brentford vs Chelsea – Goal-fest expected: Both sides have been involved in many high-scoring games. Brentford and Chelsea have seen 66–60% of their matches go Over 2.5 respectively . Their games average over 3 goals each (Brentford 3.27, Chelsea 3.03 per match). Bookmakers heavily favor a shootout – Over 2.5 is priced around 1.53 (≈65% implied) , matching the ~63% statistical chance . This is fairly priced; the value is neutral (+EV is limited since odds already reflect the high over likelihood).
• Leicester vs Newcastle – Goals likely (mostly one-sided): Newcastle’s attacking prowess and Leicester’s leaky defense point to goals. Newcastle have 62% of games over 2.5 , and Leicester’s matches are 63% over 2.5 . Leicester concede an alarming 2.23 goals/game (67 against) and often collapse late (more on that below). Not surprisingly, Over 2.5 is heavily favored (Under 2.5 is +136) , implying roughly 1.57 (-175) for Over – little to no value, as odds already assume a high scoring game.
• Fulham vs Liverpool – Probable Over with value: Liverpool’s free-scoring attack (70 goals, 60% of games over 2.5 ) meets Fulham’s mid-table defense. Fulham see 56% over 2.5 . Combined odds-implied chance is ~58% for Over, yet Pinnacle offers around 1.80–1.85 (≈55% implied) . This gap suggests +EV – data supports a slightly higher over probability than the odds imply. With Liverpool averaging 3.23 total goals in their matches and scoring form (2.33 goals/game), Over 2.5 at ~1.81 looks a value pick.
• Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest – Quietly high-scoring: Villa and Forest games are around 50–67% over 2.5 . Villa’s matches average ~2.97 goals, Forest’s 2.83. Recent form shows both scoring and conceding regularly. Pinnacle odds for Over 2.5 hover ~1.80 (55% implied), a tick below the ~58% statistical chance . This margin offers slight value on the Over – e.g. a 2-1 or 2-2 scoreline is quite plausible given each side’s roughly 1.5+ goals scored/conceded per game.
• Crystal Palace vs Brighton – Derby could see goals: Brighton are among the highest over-2.5 teams (70%) , with an adventurous attack (48 GF) and porous defense (45 GA). Palace are more defensive (41% over, 37 GF), which tempers expectations. The stats average out to ~56% chance over . Odds are near evens (Over 2.5 at 1.91 vs Under 2.06) , implying ~52% – slightly lower than our estimate. There’s a small +EV edge on Over here; Brighton’s style often dictates a faster, open game.
• Man United vs Man City – Derby dynamics: Man City’s firepower (57 GF) and United’s shaky defense (41 GA) suggest goals, but derby caution can intervene. Statistically ~62% of these teams’ games go Over . Bookmakers price Over 2.5 around -165 (implied ~62%) , perfectly in line with expectation. No strong value – the market correctly anticipates 2–3 goals (a 2-1 or 3-0 type result). If anything, watch for line movement; at current odds the bet is fairly priced.
• Everton vs Arsenal – Likely Under, one to skip: In contrast to the above, this matchup leans low-scoring. Arsenal boast the league’s best defense (only 25 conceded) and only 40% of their games go Over 2.5 . Everton struggle in attack (32 GF) and also see just 40% over 2.5 . The stats give ~40% chance of 3+ goals, whereas Over 2.5 odds are a tempting 2.30–2.40 (+130 to +140) – reflecting underdog odds on a high-total. Despite the big payout, the expected value isn’t truly there (implied ~42% vs actual ~40%). Unless one expects an atypical goal burst, the data-backed play here is to avoid Over 2.5 (or even consider Under 2.5 at 1.59, though at high cost) .

+EV Over 2.5 Highlights: Fulham–Liverpool and Aston Villa–Forest appear the best Over 2.5 value plays, each with an implied <60% but a data-backed probability closer to 60%. Brighton–Palace also offers a minor edge. In contrast, matches like Brentford–Chelsea or Leicester–Newcastle, while very likely to go over, have odds so low that the value is minimal – they may serve better in parlays or avoided due to poor payout. Always compare the implied probability of odds vs the stats-based probability – the goal is to find where odds underestimate the chance of a high-scoring game (that’s where +EV lives).

⚽️ Fulham – Liverpool: Over 2.5 Goals ✅

⚽️ Aston Villa – Nott’m Forest: Over 2.5 Goals ✅

⚽️ Crystal Palace – Brighton: Over 2.5 Goals ✅

xG (Expected Goals) Disparities & Undervalued Sides in Win Markets

Using season-long expected goals (xG) data, we can gauge each team’s performance quality (xG for vs xG against) and find mismatches in these fixtures. A large gap in xG difference between opponents often signals one team’s superiority, which may not be fully reflected in the moneyline odds – presenting potential value on the stronger side. Key observations:

• Leicester City vs Newcastle United: This is the most lopsided xG matchup. Newcastle’s xG difference (xG – xGA) is +9.96, while Leicester’s is a disastrous –31.44 . Essentially, Newcastle play like a top-6 side by xG, whereas Leicester perform worse than their already-last place standing (they “should” have conceded even more!). This ~41 xG-difference disparity is visualized below – Newcastle towers over Leicester in expected metrics. Pinnacle’s odds make Newcastle big favorites (around 1.52 to win) , implying ~66% win chance. Given Leicester’s dreadful form, even this might be undervaluing Newcastle – a true probability closer to 75% wouldn’t be surprising. Newcastle on the handicap (e.g. -1) could also be appealing with Leicester’s tendency to collapse.

✅ Newcastle Win

✅ Newcastle -1.5 Asian Handicap