Everton: The Toffees are winless in their last five Premier League games (D-D-D-D-L) . They have drawn four straight before a narrow 0-1 defeat in the Merseyside derby at Anfield . Goals have been hard to come by – Everton scored exactly 1 goal in each of those four draws and were shut out by Liverpool. Despite the lack of victories, Everton’s resiliency at least saw them avoid defeat four times, keeping them comfortably above the drop zone.
Arsenal: The Gunners have rebounded from a brief slump. Their last five league matches are W-W-D-D-L . After a shock 0-1 home loss to West Ham and two draws (0-0 at Nottingham Forest and 1-1 at Man United) , Arsenal have won their most recent two outings – 1-0 vs Chelsea and 2-1 vs Fulham . This uptick has solidified their hold on 2nd place. Arsenal’s defense has been stout (only 2 goals conceded in those five games) and they carry some momentum now with back-to-back wins.
Arsenal and Everton have a long Premier League history, and Arsenal have traditionally had the upper hand:
Everton at Goodison: Everton’s home form is middling – 4 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses so far . They’ve taken points off some strong sides at home by grinding out draws. Under Moyes, Everton are compact and hard to beat in front of their fans (only 4 home defeats). They’ve scored 21 and conceded 18 at Goodison , so goal difference is marginal (+3). This underscores that most games are tight. Notably, Everton have drawn home matches against mid-table opposition and could similarly aim to frustrate Arsenal. However, they’ve also managed some home wins against lower sides (including a 4-0 thrashing of Leicester earlier in the season). The Goodison crowd can spur Everton to energetic starts – an early goal for the Toffees could really tilt the dynamics.
Arsenal on the road: Arsenal have the 2nd-best away record in the league (only Liverpool’s is better). The Gunners are 7-6-2 (W-D-L) away with a +12 goal differential . They’ve kept six clean sheets away and have only lost twice on their travels. Those two away losses came at tough venues (one being a 0-2 defeat at Man City). In most away games, Arsenal have controlled possession and created chances, though a number of draws (6 draws) show they can be held if they don’t finish their opportunities. Importantly, Arsenal’s last visit to a bottom-half side saw them held 0-0 at Forest, a template Everton will look to emulate. Still, Arsenal average ~1.67 goals scored away and just 0.87 conceded, indicating a consistent level of performance on the road . If they hit their usual marks, one or two goals could be enough to win at Everton.
Everton: The home side have a few notable absences. Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin (thigh) remains out, continuing his unfortunate injury-plagued season . Midfielder Orel Mangala (knee) and winger Jesper Lindstrøm (groin) are also sidelined . Calvert-Lewin’s absence means Everton lack a traditional target man up front – summer signing Beto will likely lead the line. Dwight McNeil is listed as doubtful as he recovers from a knee issue . If McNeil can’t start, Everton lose a creative wide option and set-piece specialist, forcing perhaps Alex Iwobi or Jack Harrison into the XI. On the plus side, center-back pairing James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite are fit and have been forming a solid partnership. There are no suspension concerns for Everton.
Arsenal: The Gunners are dealing with a pile-up of injuries to key players. Center-back Gabriel Magalhães has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a hamstring injury , a huge blow to Arsenal’s defense. Fellow defenders Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee) and backup left-back Riccardo Calafiori (knee) are out long-term as well . Additionally, Arsenal’s strike force is depleted: striker Gabriel Jesus is out (ACL injury) and top scorer Kai Havertz is sidelined by a hamstring injury . This leaves Arsenal without two of their primary center-forward options. Winger Bukayo Saka and winger Gabriel Martinelli are thankfully back in the squad – both recently returned from hamstring problems in late March . Saka made an immediate impact, scoring on April 1 vs Fulham in his first start back. Martinelli also appears to be regaining fitness. Ben White picked up a knock and is a slight doubt ; if he can’t go, Arsenal’s backline will be very patchwork (potentially Kiwior or an academy player at right-back). Jurrien Timber is nearing a return from an ACL injury suffered early in the season; he’s doubtful but could possibly make the bench . Given these injuries, Arsenal’s likely XI will feature Leandro Trossard and Martinelli up front, with Nketiah or Smith Rowe supporting if needed. The midfield (Ødegaard, Rice, Partey) is intact, and Saliba will marshal the defense likely alongside Kiwior. It’s also worth noting Arsenal have a Champions League quarter-final first leg three days after this match (away at Real Madrid on April 8) , which may influence Mikel Arteta’s rotations and substitutions – he’ll need to balance this crucial league game with keeping players fresh for Europe.
Arsenal come into this match as clear favorites on paper, but the circumstances suggest it may be a tight, hard-fought contest. The Gunners have superior quality – they sit 2nd in the league (vs. Everton in 15th) and boast advantages in attack and defense statistics. However, the combination of Arsenal’s injury list and Everton’s defensive resilience at home could level the playing field more than the table suggests.
We can expect Arsenal to dominate possession, with their midfield trio looking to control the tempo. Without Jesus or Havertz, Arsenal’s attack will rely on the pace and trickery of Saka, Martinelli, and Trossard. Saka’s duel with Everton’s left-back (likely Young or Mykolenko) could be a key matchup – Saka’s creativity and directness are crucial to breaking down the Everton block. Arsenal will look to get Ødegaard on the ball between Everton’s midfield lines; if Ødegaard can find pockets of space, he can slide passes behind the defense. One concern for Arsenal will be defensive chemistry – with Gabriel out and possibly White too, there could be lapses. Set-pieces might be Arsenal’s achilles heel here, as Tarkowski and Branthwaite present aerial threats that a makeshift backline could struggle with.
Everton’s gameplan under David Moyes will likely be pragmatic. Expect the Toffees to sit in a compact 4-5-1 shape when defending, congesting the midfield to disrupt Arsenal’s passing. Idrissa Gueye and Abdoulaye Doucouré will be key in pressing and harrying Arsenal’s midfielders – Gueye leads the league in tackles (112) and will attempt to break up Arsenal’s rhythm. Offensively, Everton will try to capitalize on transitions. If Iliman Ndiaye starts out wide, his pace could be used on the counter targeting the space behind Arsenal’s advanced full-backs. Beto will aim to occupy Arsenal’s center-halves and be a outlet for long balls. However, given Everton’s lack of cutting edge, they may struggle to create many clear chances from open play. A lot could hinge on set pieces (free kicks, corners) – Everton have scored a fair share of goals via dead-ball situations and Arsenal, missing Gabriel, might be vulnerable there.
One factor is the psychology and stakes: Arsenal absolutely need to win to keep faint title hopes alive or at least cement their top-4 position, whereas Everton are relatively safe in mid-table (14 points clear of relegation ). Sometimes a team with less pressure (Everton) can play spoiler more freely. Moyes will surely remind his players that they held Arsenal to 0-0 last time and that Arsenal’s squad is stretched – an upset is not impossible if they execute their plan. Still, the talent gap favors Arsenal heavily. If Arsenal score first, it’s hard to see Everton having the firepower to chase the game. Conversely, if Everton score first, we could have a real contest on our hands with Arsenal pushing and potentially leaving gaps.
Likely tactical pattern: Arsenal to probe patiently, Everton to defend deep and narrow. Arsenal will try to draw Everton out then exploit overlaps with their wingers. Everton might target Arsenal’s right side if White is absent, as a potential weak link. Watch for Leandro Trossard – he scored the winner at Goodison in 2023 and has a knack for finding space in tight games; he could be an x-factor for Arsenal in the absence of other forwards. For Everton, Alex Iwobi facing his old club is a subplot – his energy and perhaps a point to prove could spur him to be adventurous on the break.
In summary, a cagey, low-scoring match is expected. Arsenal’s superior class and motivation should ultimately shine through, but they will likely have to grind for it. Everton will make them work for every chance. This has the feel of a match where the first goal will be decisive. A blowout is unlikely given Everton’s defensive approach and Arsenal missing some of their usual firepower. A one-goal margin either way or a draw looks to be on the cards. Arsenal have more avenues to find that one goal, while Everton might need a mistake or set-piece to capitalize.
(Note: Another plausible outcome to consider is a 1-1 draw, as a stalemate is Everton’s specialty of late. Four of Everton’s last six league games have ended level. If Arsenal are a bit leg-weary or looking ahead to their Champions League game, they might not break Everton down. A draw would not be a huge shock – but Arsenal will be pushing hard to avoid that.)
Using a Poisson distribution model (based on each team’s average goals scored and conceded), the most likely exact scoreline is 0-1 in Arsenal’s favor. In fact, a 1-0 Arsenal win comes out with roughly a 14% probability in the Poisson model – the single highest for any exact score. Other relatively likely scores are 0-2 or 1-1 (each around 11-12% probability), but combined Arsenal’s chances of a win (by any score) are significantly higher than a draw or an Everton win. The Poisson model’s output aligns with our qualitative analysis: Arsenal 1-0 Everton is a very plausible result. This scoreline reflects Arsenal’s strong defense doing its job and the Gunners finding a goal through one of their attacking midfielders or wingers. It may not be a glamourous win, but it would get the job done.
Predicted Score: Arsenal 1 – 0 Everton. (Arsenal to grind out a clean-sheet victory in a low-scoring contest. 1-1 also strongly suggested)
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